Russia, post or pre Putin..

One of the opinion pieces in the previous issue of The Economist, "Russia's Uneasy Handover", reflected upon the Putin legacy in Russia and the coming Medvedev-Putin regime.

As the article pointed out, "Mr Putin was lucky to inherit a recovering economy and an incipient oil- and commodity-price boom from Mr Yeltsin." In other words, Putin's perceived success lies not so much in his policies per se, but more in lucky circumstances.

If that is true, which it most certainly is, it is now the perfect time for Putin to stand back, and wait for better times before he again takes center stage in Russian politics. With a recession imminent, the Russian economy, which is very dependent on exports of commodities like oil and gas, will most certainly decline in the coming years.

Even though Putin most probably will be the de facto ruler of Russia, he is still in name only prime minister. Thus, it will be very easy for him, when better times come, to blame the Russian economic decline on the policies of Medvedev. Only a returned President Putin with unrestrained powers can get Russia back on track.

A grim prospect...