Showing posts with label Putin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Putin. Show all posts

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Worries in the High North

In this week's issue, the Economist is featuring an article that highlights Russia's conduct in the Arctic areas. It describes this area, "cold, empty and rich in fish and minerals", as "a tempting prize for a big, confident country." Russian fighter jets have been frequently flying very close to Norwegian territory, something that while not illegal sends some worrying signals. The recent €4 billion emergency loan to Iceland is also a bit worrying - not in itself, but with regards to whatever Russia wants in return.

I have written some posts about this issue already; "The Bear and Us - Russia and Norway" and "The Bear and Us Revisited". My point in those articles was that although the Cold War is over, we should be very wary with regards to our Eastern neighbor.

As a tiny little country of only four and a half million people we are not in an ideal position if we should get into a conflict with Russia. But we still need to do everything in our power to stand our ground, and send clear signals of our own standpoint. Also, as I see it, we have no other choice than to keep both of our feet firmly grounded in NATO. It may be pointed out that "NATO presence is fitful" in the High North, as the Economist does. Still, it is a grave mistake to argue for us to distance ourselves from NATO and our Western allies, as some of our socialist parties do. We cannot afford to stand alone, and NATO is our best bet not to do so.

It has been sad to see that even our dear former Prime Minister, Haakon Lie, has been arguing against taking our share of responsibilities in NATO operations around the world. His rhetorical point is that Norway's borders are not running next to Afghanistan. That is of course true. But it is equally true that most NATO members do not have a border to Russia along the Pasvik River in Northern Norway.

Sunday, March 9, 2008

Russia, post or pre Putin..

One of the opinion pieces in the previous issue of The Economist, "Russia's Uneasy Handover", reflected upon the Putin legacy in Russia and the coming Medvedev-Putin regime.

As the article pointed out, "Mr Putin was lucky to inherit a recovering economy and an incipient oil- and commodity-price boom from Mr Yeltsin." In other words, Putin's perceived success lies not so much in his policies per se, but more in lucky circumstances.

If that is true, which it most certainly is, it is now the perfect time for Putin to stand back, and wait for better times before he again takes center stage in Russian politics. With a recession imminent, the Russian economy, which is very dependent on exports of commodities like oil and gas, will most certainly decline in the coming years.

Even though Putin most probably will be the de facto ruler of Russia, he is still in name only prime minister. Thus, it will be very easy for him, when better times come, to blame the Russian economic decline on the policies of Medvedev. Only a returned President Putin with unrestrained powers can get Russia back on track.

A grim prospect...